Unprecedented Hurricane Activity Predicted for 2024
Researchers from Colorado State University (CSU) have released their annual early forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, predicting an extremely active year. With 11 hurricanes forecasted, 2024 is expected to set a new record for hurricane activity. This forecast surpasses the previous high, predicting the formation of 23 named storms, of which 11 are expected to become hurricanes, and five to reach major hurricane strength with winds of 111 mph or greater.
Hurricane Activity in Perspective
Last year, the Atlantic hurricane season witnessed 20 named storms, ranking it fourth for the most named storms since 1950. The average season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The 2024 season is forecasted to exceed these averages significantly, indicating a potential for unprecedented storm activity.
Factors Contributing to the Active Season
The primary reason behind the forecast of an extremely active hurricane season is the record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Additionally, the tropical Pacific is likely to transition to La Niña conditions, which tends to decrease upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, reducing vertical wind shear and favoring hurricane formation and intensification.
Impact and Preparedness
With the forecasted increase in hurricane activity, the probability of major hurricane landfall along the U.S. coastline and the Caribbean is significantly higher than average. This raises concerns about potential impacts on communities, particularly in terms of preparedness and response capabilities. The forecast emphasizes the importance of early and comprehensive planning to mitigate the effects of potential hurricanes.
Looking Forward
As the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the emphasis on monitoring ocean temperatures and climate conditions will be crucial. With the forecast predicting activity levels approximately 170% of the average season, communities along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean must remain vigilant and prepared for a potentially record-breaking year.